What the evidence shows

The study shows that climate beliefs in Latin America follow a distinct pattern from those observed in advanced democracies. Based on survey data from seven countries representing the majority of the region’s emissions, the evidence indicates that skepticism about the existence of climate change and its human causes is relatively rare, while skepticism about the severity of its consequences is widespread.

It demonstrates that climate belief is not a single construct but consists of three distinct dimensions—existence, anthropogenic causation, and perceived severity—which can be shaped by different factors and even coexist inconsistently within individuals. Among these, perceptions of severity emerge as the most variable and contested.

The evidence further shows that skepticism about climate impacts is primarily driven by individualistic value orientations rather than by political ideology or socio-demographic factors. This contrasts with patterns in the United States and Western Europe, where ideology plays a more central role, highlighting the importance of context-specific drivers in shaping climate attitudes.

Key Findings

• Belief in existence and anthropogenic causation is near-universal: over 90% of respondents across all seven countries believe climate change is happening, and 93% on average attribute it to human activity — leaving little room for classic "denialism."

• Political ideology and socio-demographic factors (sex, age, income, education, religion, race) are weak and inconsistent predictors of climate beliefs in Latin America, contradicting patterns well-established in the US and Western Europe where these variables matter considerably more.

• Perceived scientific consensus is the strongest correlate of belief in existence specifically (a 0.49-point increase on an 8-point scale), but this "gateway belief" effect does not extend to beliefs about causes or consequences — challenging an established assumption in the climate communication literature.

Stand-out data points

• 11.5 percentage points: the drop in probability of believing climate change will be negative, per one-unit increase in individualism — the strongest and most cross-nationally consistent psychological effect in the entire study.

Examples of how Understories uses this research

• Credibility Large multi-country academic sample (N=5,338) with robust statistical checks (multiple model specifications, multiple-hypothesis corrections) — strong citation-grade credibility.

• Solution focus Directly supports solution-framing that highlights economic opportunity/co-benefits (green jobs, market solutions) as more persuasive to individualistic segments than appeals to collective sacrifice.

• Explainability Coefficients, confidence intervals, and p-values are reported per country and pooled, supporting granular, specific citations.

— non exhaustive.

Key quote

"Skepticism [is] correlated with psychological rather than socio-political factors: individualistic worldviews in particular drive disbelief in the severe consequences of climate change, a worrying finding in contexts where social trust is low."

© The Author(s) 2023. Published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).

Last update: 23 July 2026

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